{"id":340201,"date":"2025-01-31T18:30:03","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T13:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scconline.com\/blog\/?p=340201"},"modified":"2025-02-01T09:57:08","modified_gmt":"2025-02-01T04:27:08","slug":"gdp-growth-2025-26-economic-survey-2024-25-legal-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scconline.com\/blog\/post\/2025\/01\/31\/gdp-growth-2025-26-economic-survey-2024-25-legal-news\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018GDP growth expected to range between 6.3% and 6.8% in 2025-26&#8242;: Economic Survey 2024-25 Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n.animate-charcter{background-image: linear-gradient(-225deg, #231557 0%, #44107a 29%, #ff1361 67%, #fff800 100%); background-size: 200% auto; -webkit-background-clip: text; -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent; animation: textclip 0s linear infinite;}\n@keyframes textclip {to {background-position: 200% center;}}\n<\/style>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify; line-height: 150%;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2024-2025 on <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">31-01-2025<\/span>, following President Droupadi Murmu&#8217;s address to both houses of Parliament, which marked the commencement of the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">FY 2025-26 Budget session<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Economic Survey<\/span> indicates that India&#8217;s <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">GDP growth is expected to range between 6.3% and 6.8% in 2025-26<\/span>, supported by robust <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">private consumption and investment<\/span>. However, the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Survey also warns of significant global economic and political uncertainties<\/span> that could impact growth. While domestic investment and output growth show promise, navigating <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">global headwinds<\/span> will require <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">strategic and prudent policy management<\/span>, according to Chief Economic Adviser <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran<\/span>. It highlights steady economic growth, resilience in key sectors, and the necessity of structural reforms to sustain long-term development. Despite global economic uncertainties, India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, with real GDP growth estimated at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.4% in FY25<\/span>, close to its decadal average.<\/p>\n<p>This year&#8217;s Economic Survey is structured into <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">13 chapters<\/span>, covering various aspects of the economy:<\/p>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">State of the economy<\/span>: Getting back into the fast lane<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Monetary and financial sector developments<\/span>: The cart and the horse<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">External sector<\/span>: Getting FDI right<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Prices and inflation<\/span>: Understanding the dynamics<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Medium-term outlook<\/span>: Deregulation drives growth<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Investment and infrastructure<\/span>: Keeping it going<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Industry<\/span>: All about business reforms<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Services<\/span>: New challenges for the old war horse<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Agriculture and food management<\/span>: Sector of the future<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Climate and environment<\/span>: Adaptation matters<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Social sector<\/span>: Extending reach and driving empowerment<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Employment and skill development<\/span>: Existential priorities<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Labour in the AI era<\/span>: Crisis or catalyst<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Macroeconomic Overview<\/h3>\n<p>India&#8217;s GDP is projected to grow between <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.3% and 6.8% in FY26<\/span>, reflecting a stable economic environment. The real Gross Value Added (GVA) is also expected to expand by <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.4% in FY25<\/span>. The report underscores that growth is driven by strong domestic demand, capital expenditure, and a thriving services sector.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Capital Expenditure<\/span>: Grew at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">8.2% between July and November 2024<\/span> and is expected to accelerate further.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Retail Inflation<\/span>: Softened to <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">4.9% in April-December 2024<\/span>, with the consumer price index aligning towards the target of <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">4% in FY26<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Exports<\/span>: Overall exports registered <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.0% year-on-year growth<\/span> during April-December 2024.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)<\/span>: Gross inflows rose from <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">USD 47.2 billion in FY24 to USD 55.6 billion in FY25<\/span>, reflecting a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">17.9% YoY increase<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\"><span style=\"\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Foreign Exchange Reserves<\/span>: Stood at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">USD 640.3 billion at the end of December 2024<\/span>, covering <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">10.9 months of imports<\/span> and nearly <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">90% of external debt<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Sectoral Analysis<\/h3>\n<h4>Agriculture and Allied Sectors<\/h4>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The agriculture sector is projected to grow at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">3.8% in FY25<\/span>, supported by a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">record Kharif food grain production of 1,647.05 LMT<\/span>, marking an <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">increase of 89.37 LMT<\/span> over the previous year. Key drivers include <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">horticulture, livestock, and fisheries<\/span>. A <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">15.8% YoY increase<\/span> in solar and wind power capacity addition also augments the rural economy.<\/p>\n<h4>Industrial Sector<\/h4>\n<p>The industrial sector is estimated to grow at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.2% in FY25<\/span>, supported by robust performance in construction, electricity, gas, and water supply sectors. However, growth moderated in Q2 of FY 2024-25 due to:<\/p>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Weak global demand<\/span> affecting manufacturing exports.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Monsoon variations<\/span> impacting mining and construction.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Festive season timing differences<\/span> compared to previous years.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">Despite these challenges, India&#8217;s <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains in the expansionary zone<\/span>, driven by strong domestic demand and new business gains.<\/p>\n<h4>Services Sector<\/h4>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The services sector remains a pillar of economic growth, with estimated growth of <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">7.2% in FY25<\/span>. Notably, <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">services exports surged to 12.8% during April-November FY25<\/span>, nearly doubling the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">5.7% growth in FY24<\/span>. The sector benefits from thriving <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">financial services, real estate, professional services, public administration, and defence<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h4>Investment and Infrastructure Growth<\/h4>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The Survey underscores the need for <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">continuous infrastructure investment over the next two decades<\/span> to sustain long-term high growth. The government launched a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">&#8377;50,000 crore Self-Reliant India Fund<\/span> to provide equity support to MSMEs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">BSE stock market capitalization to GDP ratio<\/span> stood at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">136% at the end of December 2024<\/span>, significantly outpacing China (<span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">65%<\/span>) and Brazil (<span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">37%<\/span>), reflecting robust investor confidence in India&#8217;s economic prospects.<\/p>\n<h3>Inflation and Price Trends<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">Inflation remains a crucial concern, but the Survey highlights positive trends in managing price stability. <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Retail headline inflation eased to 4.9% in the first three quarters of FY25, down from 5.4% in FY24.<\/span> The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) saw a slight uptick, driven by higher prices of certain food items like vegetables and pulses. However,<span style=\"font-weight: bold;\"> India&#8217;s consumer price inflation is expected to align with the target of around 4% by FY26, as per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Banking Sector Performance<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The banking sector has demonstrated stability, with a significant reduction in non-performing assets (NPAs) to a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">12-year low of 2.6% of gross loans<\/span>. &#8377;3.6 lakh crore realized through the resolution of 1,068 plans under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code till September 2024. Capital buffers for scheduled commercial banks remain strong, with the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) standing at 16.7% as of September 2024<\/span>, well above the regulatory norm.<\/p>\n<h3>Employment and Social Indicators<\/h3>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Unemployment Rate<\/span>: Declined to <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">3.2% in 2023-24<\/span> from <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">6.0% in 2017-18<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Social Services Expenditure<\/span>: Registered an annual growth rate of <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">15% from FY21 to FY25<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Government Health Expenditure<\/span>: Increased from <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">29% to 48%<\/span> between FY15 and FY22, reducing out-of-pocket healthcare expenses from <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">62.6% to 39.4%<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>AI and Workforce Transformation<\/h3>\n<p>The Economic Survey acknowledges that <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Artificial Intelligence (AI) poses both challenges and opportunities<\/span>. <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">CEA Nageswaran<\/span> highlighted the need for:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Institutional support to train the workforce<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Changes in academic curricula<\/span> to align with AI-driven industries<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Reformed workplace practices<\/span> to accommodate technological transitions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">While AI augments labour and can deliver broad-based social benefits, the private sector must balance AI adoption with social costs, which could manifest over the long term.<\/p>\n<h3>Mental Health, Workplace Culture, and Productivity<\/h3>\n<p>For the first time, the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Economic Survey explores mental health and its correlation with productivity<\/span>. <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Chapter 11<\/span> identifies four key factors that impact mental well-being:<\/p>\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: decimal;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Social connectivity<\/span> (family and friends)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Healthy eating habits<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Physical activity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 3%;\">Reduced smartphone usage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The Survey finds that <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">hostile work cultures, excessive working hours, and sedentary lifestyles negatively impact mental health<\/span>, affecting <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">overall economic productivity<\/span>.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Lower mental health scores correlate with lower workplace productivity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 3%;\">Private sector initiatives in employee well-being can influence India&#8217;s demographic dividend realization<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Inflation and Food Security<\/h3>\n<p>The Economic Survey proposes a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">policy shift to reduce cereal output<\/span> and <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">boost production of pulses and edible oils<\/span>, emphasizing:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Market mechanisms for price risk hedging<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Preventing excessive fertilizer use<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 3%;\">Discouraging water and power-intensive crop production<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">Additionally, the Survey stresses the need for <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">climate-resilient crop varieties<\/span> to <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">mitigate damage from extreme weather conditions<\/span> and ensure food security.<\/p>\n<h3>India&#8217;s Growing Data Centre Market<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">India&#8217;s <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">data centre market is projected to grow to $11.6 billion by 2032<\/span>. The <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">current colocation data centre capacity is 977 MW<\/span>, with 1.03 GW under construction (2024-2028) and 1.29 GW planned.<\/p>\n<h3>Climate and Environmental Concerns:<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The Survey draws attention to India&#8217;s continued efforts towards a greener economy. It reports a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">15.8% year-on-year increase in capacity addition in solar and wind power<\/span>, a key focus for achieving renewable energy targets. As India progresses toward its climate goals, the integration of sustainable practices into the growth trajectory remains critical.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">India is also addressing climate change through policy measures and global partnerships, aligning with international environmental agreements. However, the Survey stresses that <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">ongoing investment in clean energy and climate adaptation will be essential to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change<\/span>, especially for vulnerable sectors like agriculture.<\/p>\n<h3>Challenges from China&#8217;s Manufacturing Dominance<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">CEA highlighted challenges posed by China&#8217;s emergence as a manufacturing superpower<\/span>, particularly for industries dependent on Chinese supply chains. <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Solar equipment manufacturers and other industries remain vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, price fluctuations, and currency risks<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">CEA <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Nageswaran<\/span> emphasized that <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">raising India&#8217;s growth average in the next two decades will require leveraging its demographic dividend through deregulation<\/span>. He cautioned that a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">&#8220;business as usual&#8221;<\/span> approach could lead to economic stagnation and stressed the importance of policy stimulus for sustained growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The focus is on <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Ease of Doing Business 2.0<\/span>, aimed at fostering a robust SME sector (Mittelstand model) and enhancing India&#8217;s economic freedom.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">Additionally, collaboration between <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">government, private sector, and academia<\/span> is emphasized to mitigate the <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">societal impacts of AI<\/span>, ensuring a balanced approach to technological advancements.<\/p>\n<h3>Conclusion<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">The Economic Survey 2024-25 presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for India&#8217;s economy. It highlights the importance of <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">deregulation, sustained infrastructure investment, and policy continuity<\/span> to maintain high growth. With strong fundamentals, robust investment inflows, and strategic policy interventions, India is well-positioned to achieve its <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Viksit Bharat 2047 vision<\/span> while navigating global economic uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 1%;\">Commenting upon the Economic Survey, Atul Pandey, Partner, Khaitan &amp; Co, said that<\/p>\n<p class=\"animate-charcter\" style=\"margin-left: 18pt; font-style: italic; margin-bottom: 1%;\">&#8220;The Economic Survey rightly underscores the need for deregulation, particularly from a regulatory compliance standpoint. While the government has introduced several reforms to enhance the ease of doing business, the reality remains that many companies continue to struggle with compliance at the local level. This, in turn, escalates compliance costs\u2014an issue that is particularly critical for MSMEs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"animate-charcter\" style=\"margin-left: 18pt; font-style: italic; margin-bottom: 3%;\">More importantly, the Survey highlights the need for objective criteria and procedural safeguards to minimise the risk of arbitrary action by local officials in cases of non-compliance. In the absence of such safeguards, officials have, at times, resorted to high-handed measures, including imposing penalties \/ sealing premises without affording affected parties an adequate opportunity to be heard.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 3%;\">As the world&#8217;s fastest-growing major economy, India&#8217;s economic trajectory remains resilient, offering confidence to investors, policymakers, and stakeholders in the country&#8217;s long-term growth story.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-style: italic;\">The Economic Survey 2024-25, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament, presents a detailed assessment of India&#8217;s economic performance, challenges, and future outlook. The report projects India&#8217;s GDP growth between 6.3% and 6.8% for FY 2025-26, reflecting stability despite global economic uncertainties.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67516,"featured_media":340206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1188,2],"tags":[78123,78120,78122,78124,78116,78117,78119,78126,78121,78118,78125,78096,78093,78127,78088],"class_list":["post-340201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hot_off_the_press","category-news","tag-budget2025live","tag-budgetsession2025","tag-economicoutlook","tag-economicreport","tag-economicsurvey2024","tag-economicsurvey2025","tag-financeministerindia","tag-financialnewsindia","tag-gdpgrowthindia","tag-indiaeconomicsurvey","tag-indiagdpgrowth","tag-indianeconomy","tag-nirmalasitharaman","tag-stockmarketindia","tag-unionbudget2025"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.4 (Yoast SEO v26.4) - 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